The Organisation for Economic Growth and Development this week released a report on the economic outlook for the G7 group of major industrialised nations and, would you believe it, the organisation expects the UK to fall into recession later this year.
The OECD’s crack team of economic ninjas says it expects the UK economy to shrink in the third and fourth quarter by .3% and .4% respectively, which would leave total growth at just 1.2% for 2008 – the worst prediction for the UK in recent times. Before you start stocking up on baked beans and ammo, bear in mind that the Treasury predicts growth of 2.5% for the year, while the International Monetary Fund reckons we’ll see 1.4% and the OECD itself was claiming 1.8% just two months ago.
If anything, this demonstrates that you can take most predictions about the economy with a large pinch of salt. How on earth is anybody supposed to decide which of these ‘respected’ organisations to believe when it looks like they just pull these figures out of their arses and change their minds every couple of months?